Waiting for Recovery

The excellent Edmund Conway in the Telegraph has this -

   the Treasury has estimated that some 5pc of the GDP has been lost permanently – in other words, it was illusory growth generated as a result of the financial crisis, which has now gone forever...

   In their seminal work on financial crises, This Time Is Different, Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart point out that financial crisis take many more months to recover from than normal recessions.

Looks like my estimate of 12-18 months for this to play out may have been seriously over optimistic!

Update: Also in the Telegraph Damian Reece has this -

An end to recession is not the same as the start of growth.

Indeed.